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Of market and math

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  • The basic idea is that different people have different risk tolerances. Therefore, if some financial assets (say, bank loans) can be bundled and bits of it sold to buyers with varying appetite for risk, it will free the primary lender (the bank) from the obligation of carrying all the risk. So risk will be borne more efficiently and the bank’s ability to lend will increase.

    Don’t sneer at this just because jokes about investment bankers outnumber jokes about lawyers today. Distributing risks is at the heart of such plain vanilla financial products like insurance or company shares. Issuing shares allows a company’s business risk to be spread widely between shareholders.

    But this distributed risk idea works really well for markets if all market participants have equal access to all relevant information. Remove that assumption and there’s a problem.

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    When risk is distributed widely, as it was when assets of various kinds were bundled and bits sold to many financial firms, ideally everyone involved should have known if, say, particularly risky loans were bundled with relatively safe assets. But one of the things that happened in the financial crisis was that sellers of risky mortgages had better information than buyers of bundled assets. There was information asymmetry.

    So when risky assets turned bad, holders of bundled assets, who didn’t have all the information, acted on the basis that the whole thing was risky. Since there were many buyers of these bundles — risk was widely distributed — the market for efficiently managing risk ended up increasing market participants’ perception of risk. Basically, the model failed.

    ... contd.

    PreviousNext1234
    CRASH OF 2008By: sanjiv | 24-Nov-2008 Reply | Forward Definition of Risk as Standrad Deviation around Mean, Beta, the EMH Concept in fact the foundation of Modern Finance has been repeatdely proven wrong over last 20-30 years. VaR, another holy mantra was criticised as a "single digit magic number produced by pioneers of pecuniary perils to mislead the senior management in believing that market risk is properly controlled" BLACK-SCHOLE-MERTON model the magic formulae for option valuation was proved to be a disaster within a year of its authors getting Nobel award. The mathematical disasters, weapons of mass destructions, toxic assets all are well documented and known facts. In spite of this historical perspective, the genius of Wall Street invited the disasters. Irrationality and herd mentality plagues not only the common folks but also the corporate honchos and double doctorate in Maths, Physics dominating the Wall Street.
    Of market and mathBy: Rajaram B | 24-Nov-2008 Reply | Forward Well written- finally the innocent assumption that market plays straight and it is only a matter of assuming normal distribution with low standard deviation which did not prove to be right is right... but solution has to factor in correcting the asymmetrical information where the credit rating agencies should have been more honest while the bundling the risks for re-sale, will remain. It is a matter of honesty and integrity. So long as fees become important, both auditors and the credit rating agencies are liable to be seduced at one point or the other. The trick is to become cautious when some groups of people without creating real physical wealth or service , start becoming stinkingly rich, that is parasites' income falling outside the normal distribution curve for incomes, monitored stochastically, for rate of change, warning bells should ring that a Ponzi's game is on.
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