Opinion Old rivals,new challenge

The electorate has tried the BJP alone,SP-BSP,SP with Congress support,BJP-BSP,SP with smaller parties and then a single-party rule with the BSP in 2007. Nonetheless,this past decade,UP has played a somewhat peripheral role in politics at the Centre,especially in contrast to the early decades of the Indian Republic. With a non-Uttar Pradesh MP being sworn in as prime minister only as late as in 1977,it had enjoyed a long run as the make-or-break state in India. The last PM from UP is supposed to have famously said,the road to Delhi goes through Lucknow.

The fragmentation of the vote,even in successive Lok Sabha elections,resulted in both the Congress and the BJP getting marginalised,and the SP and the BSP somehow unable to lend their heft to the Centre in a way that would yield the proverbial link that state capitals seek to the Centre.

But with political parties sharpening their plans for assembly elections in 2012,that too facing a formidable incumbent like Mayawati,one would expect a little more political spunk and robust ideas to be contesting for space. But what one sees now are mostly old solutions and incapable of setting the Sangam on fire.

First,the BJP. The main opposition party is still wondering why it is unable to turn the “swell” of “anger” and “irritation” of an increasingly aspirant,hopeful middle class,against what is seen as rampant “corruption” of the ruling party,into visible support for them. What the BJP thought would happen automatically,that it would emerge as the “alternative”,is not really working out. The inability to channel middle-class rage in their favour appears to have unsettled the party. Hence the return more or less to time-tested formulas: the charms of Uma Bharti,the harking back to Atal Bihari Vajpayee,the touch of Hindutva. Bharti’s strength is seen to be the fact that she is a woman and OBC and therefore well-placed to pick up the Samajwadi Party’s drifting voters. Having sidelined their last successful OBC leader Kalyan Singh — with Rajnath Singh and Kalraj Mishra having done little to raise the BJP’s lot — Bharti seems to be the surer bet. This strategy,however,will set off “push” factors too — the minorities can again be expected to act tactically.

As far as the Congress is concerned,by dramatically raising the pitch at Bhatta-Parsaul,at least among the party loyalists,it signalled energy and a good gig to try and capture the anti-Mayawati space. But other steps have not been so encouraging. With the call to OBCs and Muslims,it appears to be a way of just mopping up a listless SP support base,and a drastic shift away from its own success formula of 2009 based on the aam admi formulation. However,now the party looks defensive about its record at the Centre and wary about trying to drag in Central leaders without a chief ministerial hopeful,a face as it were. The call for Rahul Gandhi’s birthday to be marked as a day with meaning for farmers seems to be another old idea,especially with the “celebrations” taking place in absentia. Unless,of course,the Congress has decided to boldly do what it has not done so far: make Rahul Gandhi the face for its shot at wresting power in the state after 21 years.

The two regional parties that have,in the past 15 or so years,cornered the bulk of the seats face a peculiar situation,precisely because they have what the Congress and the BJP now lack: local networks. While these are indispensable for galvanising voters,these are reminders of the entrenched and jaded “system” that has blighted the lives of those out of the game — those who are out of “the system”.

The SP,having emerged as a party protecting its family over everything else,has suffered several big changes — its flip-flop over the UPA,gaining and losing the support of OBC leader Kalyan Singh and then its most visible Rajput face,Amar Singh. The party is not even sure if these are an advantage or the lack of it. Not knowing what to peddle as its USP,with even its non-BJP platform having limitations now,the SP is focusing its ammunition on the Congress at present.

The BSP,in power and quieter than most as usual,may have gained by Dalit iconography that it has boldly pushed in the past five years,but has little to even offer its support base in the name of tweaking the system to benefit them. The challenge the BSP faces is how to convince its core supporters that it stands for their interests,despite the emergence of and attempts to retain the “rainbow coalition” that drove it to power five years ago. Meanwhile,Mayawati has,especially against the Bhatta-Parsaul backdrop,tried to stay ahead of the curve on the issue of land by meeting political agitations with bold formulas on compensation. Unlike her rivals,her bid for power will be based on the facts of her incumbency.

A new idea,a fresh push from any formation that could prove to be the wild card against this old rhythm,doesn’t seem to be there,yet. It would be left once again for the most experimental populace in India to try and craft out the semblance of a solution. That is the voter’s own Mission 2012.

seema.chishti@expressindia.com