Opinion On the western front

Meanwhile,there might be few surprises from the talks between the two foreign secretaries (Nirupama Rao and Salman Bashir) on Tuesday and the two ministers (S.M. Krishna and Hina Rabbani Khar) on Wednesday; for the results have been carefully pre-cooked.

The two sides will indeed express satisfaction at the fact that the dialogue has completed the first round after India suspended the peace process in the wake of the 26/11 terror outrage in Mumbai.

The renewed peace process has also survived the terror attacks on Mumbai on July 13. All bets might be off,however,if the investigation points to the involvement of anti-India forces across the western border.

For now,as official Delhi puts it,the renewed peace process between India and Pakistan is no longer on “life support” and has begun to “breathe on its own”.

The framework of the dialogue is likely to be expanded to include additional subjects and some of the discussions could be elevated to the political level.

The two sides are likely to announce a range of new but modest measures for trade facilitation and people-to-people contact in Jammu and Kashmir across the Line of Control.

Beyond J&K,a shared commitment to expand bilateral trade has been one of the major outcomes of the first round of the peace process; the two ministers will hopefully announce some concrete steps towards trade liberalisation.

For its part,India will continue to call for full justice in the 26/11 case. One has to be very bold,however,to assume that Pakistan’s leadership can or will deliver. If the civilian leadership in Islamabad is incapable,the Pakistan army in Rawalpindi is clearly unwilling to clamp down on the anti-India terror groups.

Rawalpindi has not given Washington much satisfaction on terrorism despite military and civilian aid worth $20 billion that the US has showered on Pakistan over the last decade.

So where is the question of India’s demands being addressed? After all,Delhi’s leverage with Rawalpindi is a lot less than that of Washington.

Delhi also cannot lose sight of the fact that,for Pakistan,the peace process with India is a lot less important at this juncture than the challenges (or opportunities as some in Rawalpindi might view them) that the Pakistan army faces on its western borderlands.

For good or bad,Pakistan’s current geopolitics is tied to the future of Afghanistan. If it wants to make progress with Rawalpindi,Delhi must demonstrate its relevance to the unfolding geopolitics of Afghanistan.

This week’s talks provide an important opportunity for India to begin a bilateral conversation with Pakistan,which may not be enthusiastic about starting one,on the situation in Afghanistan and in the Pashtun tribal lands that connect our two western neighbours.

For its part,Delhi must convey a few important messages on India’s Afghan policy to its Pakistani interlocutors this week.

First,India must reaffirm its determination to deepen its bilateral strategic partnership with Afghanistan along the lines outlined by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Kabul during May.

Second,Delhi must reassure Rawalpindi that India does not view its relationship with Afghanistan in terms of a rivalry with Pakistan. Delhi must underline its recognition of Pakistan’s natural neighbourly interests in Afghanistan,with which it shares 2,500 km of open and contested border called the Durand Line.

Third,Delhi must remind Pakistan that India has not taken sides in the dispute between Kabul and Islamabad on the legitimacy of the Durand Line,drawn by the British Raj between undivided India and Afghanistan in 1893.

Fourth,Delhi must affirm that India will do nothing to disturb the military calm on the Indo-Pak frontier and that the Pakistan army must feel free to move more troops to its western frontiers to deal with its security challenges there.

Finally,India must offer to cooperate with Pakistan in the economic development and political stabilisation of Afghanistan at any forum,bilateral or multilateral.

India must sound out Pakistan on convening a trilateral forum with Afghanistan — this can be done within the framework of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation — to discuss shared threats from terrorism and opportunities for triangular economic and trade cooperation.

If Delhi does propose an Indo-Pak framework for cooperation in Afghanistan,it will not be the first time. In June 1981,then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi sent her foreign minister,P.V. Narasimha Rao,to Pakistan to discuss a joint approach to the security challenges facing the subcontinent after the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.

Relishing its place on the Cold War frontlines,Pakistan dismissed India’s offer,confident as it was of extracting unlimited American political and military support.

Three decades later,as the war moves across the Durand Line,Pakistan finds itself in a tight spot. Both the US and the terror groups are relentlessly bombing targets on Pakistani soil. Rawalpindi’s relations with Washington are rapidly fraying and its economy is in deep trouble.

Whatever India’s other grievances might be and whether it finds a receptive ear or not,Delhi must offer,both in private and in public,that it is ready to join Rawalpindi in countering the current security threats to the subcontinent and grasping the opportunities for regional economic integration.

The writer is a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research,Delhi
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