Opinion Our Kabul question

Over a period of time,India created many arguments for itself depending on the audience at hand. For those who questioned commitment,there was solid contribution to show; for those who wanted more feet on the ground,there were ongoing long-gestation projects to show; for those who wanted India to understand Pakistan’s sensitivities on Afghanistan,there was enough to prove a perceived “slowing down”. All of this made for good,smart diplomacy,but fell short of a coherent policy. Matters,as they stood,did not bother anyone,particularly a political leadership which already had a lot on its plate. The government at the highest levels was clear that Indian assistance should largely focus on civilian reconstruction efforts.

The government also took comfort in the fact that US President Barack Obama’s plans to effect a significant reduction of troops by July 2011 followed by complete withdrawal in 2014 had undergone some review. But a couple of weeks back,Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai announced seven areas that will transition into full control of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Going by last month’s congressional testimony of General David Petraeus,who heads the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF),the reduction of troops will be more of a “thinning” exercise than a drastic reduction as was projected earlier. However,Petraeus also said that in the fierce fighting west of Kandahar,60 per cent troops were from the ANSF,his assessment being that the Afghan forces are gradually taking more responsibility.

One can disagree on the form and manner of transition,but what is clear is that rebuilding,training,equipping and expanding the ANSF is the most important project in Afghanistan today. The way it shapes up,how it’s officered and led,and its democratic underpinnings are critical issues on which hinges the immediate future of Afghanistan. Another important facet would be the regional linkages of this force which will largely determine its outlook. Here is where India needs to rethink. If the ANSF is going to be the focal point in Afghanistan,then is it advisable for New Delhi to still keep a hands-off approach from active security cooperation? The US and its allies may be content with this because an India with growing interests in Afghanistan’s security apparatus will predictably raise temperatures in Islamabad.

This is the challenge for India. It needs to rethink its role in Afghanistan,possibly redefine it in the changing context. The strategic reasoning aside,there is a large section of moderate Afghans who look up to India. They make up the constituency of goodwill that Indian officials so proudly talk about and would be keen for India to take up a bigger role,fearing that a transition could create a vacuum or benefit the wrong players. In fact,amid these feelers,Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sent the national security adviser to Afghanistan recently,possibly to obtain an assessment of the changing situation.

The Karzai government itself would be quite amenable to India stepping in to assist Afghanistan make this transition successful. It may,however,have different demands and priorities when it comes to the nature of security assistance. India has stonewalled many of these feelers in the past,but looking at three to four years from now,a reassessment is due.

The question would be the risk factor and,of course,the extent to which Washington will promote the Indian effort. A good positive beginning could be the police. Amid all the focus on the ANSF,the importance of the Afghan police cannot be forgotten. An effective police force could mean an easier,more permanent,transition process. But India must be clear that it cannot just be a case of raising a couple of women police battalions. New Delhi has to look beyond and take its risks now than to let an adverse situation develop.

Further,India cannot just overlook the growing influence of other regional players in Kabul. Today there are more flights between Kabul and Dubai and other Middle East destinations than between Delhi and Kabul. About a decade back,just after the fall of the Taliban,the Delhi-Kabul flight was Afghanistan’s lifeline. Any foreign diplomat or official going to Kabul had to travel via Delhi. This has changed.

Similarly,the initial group of Af-Pak envoys was a small but well-knit group of representatives from a handful of key countries,including India. Today,it’s called the International Contact Group (ICG) with some 50 members,including the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC),for the purpose of showing more inclusiveness. So much so that the last meeting was at the OIC headquarters in Jeddah.

To sum it up,the international discourse on Afghanistan has undergone a qualitative change,acquiring a more complex character due to competing interests of hitherto fringe players. Unlike the new entrants in the Af-Pak space,India has vital and legitimate security interests at stake. It is important not to forget that the Af-Pak war is very much India’s too. If there is going to be a transition in Afghanistan,an Indian imprint has to be present and most Afghans are likely to see that as a positive. The prime minister made a bold move on Pakistan by inviting his counterpart to Mohali,giving added political impetus to the engagement process. Equally tough,if not tougher,decisions await him on the Afghan front and they need to be taken soon.

pranab.samanta@expressindia.com