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Our Obama moment

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  • Judging by its rather defensive reaction to British Foreign Secretary David Miliband’s remarks on Jammu and Kashmir, New Delhi appears unprepared to cope with the new approach to India and Pakistan that has been promised by Barack Hussein Obama, who will be sworn in as the 44th president of the United States today.

    The context of Miliband’s remarks is important. That he was denouncing America’s “war on terror” just days before its author, George W. Bush, was about to demit office merely underlines London’s eagerness to quickly adapt to the regime change in Washington.

    What Miliband says about Kashmir and India-Pakistan relations matters a lot less than the argument that Obama has consistently articulated since the launch of his presidential campaign in early 2007.

    To his credit, Obama recognised that the central front in the war on terror is not Iraq, as Bush decided at great cost to the United States, but Afghanistan. Obama was right to insist that the war on terror launched in Afghanistan in 2001 must also be brought to a close there.

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    Second, Obama argued, with some insight, that the problems in Afghanistan cannot be solved without addressing the sources of support for extremism and terrorism in Pakistan. With the war in Afghanistan expanding across the Durand Line into Pakistan, few in the world, let alone India, will object to this proposition.

    It is the third element of Obama’s argument that is viewed with some apprehension in New Delhi. Obama’s assessment is that addressing Pakistan’s security concerns on the east with India holds the key to Islamabad’s genuine cooperation in the war on terror.That in turn has led to a linkage, in Obama’s mind, between the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan on the one hand, and the US vulnerability in Afghanistan. The proposal to appoint a special envoy to the region has flowed out of this proposition.

    All indications are that the tough talking Richard Holbrooke might be appointed to that job in the coming days. Although in deference to New Delhi’s objections, Obama might not name Kashmir as part of the special envoy’s mandate, reworking the India-Pakistan relationship will be an inevitable and important component of his initiative. For the US, which now faces a real prospect of defeat in Afghanistan, South Asia is at the very top of its foreign policy agenda.

    The only direct national security threat to the US comes from the now resurgent extremist groups operating in the borderlands between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Whether India likes it or not, Washington will devote substantive diplomatic energies towards the subcontinent, and New Delhi will be drawn into this dynamic. Instead of opposing something that is about to unfold, New Delhi must offer full cooperation to Obama in South Asia on terms that are mutually acceptable. A number of factors make the Obama initiative a rare strategic opportunity for India.

    For one, there is no basic contradiction between the American imperative to stabilise Pakistan and Afghanistan and India’s need to promote political moderation and economic modernisation of the north-western parts of the subcontinent. For decades the US has refused to discuss with India any issue relating to Pakistan. If Obama seeks India’s cooperation in shaping the future of Pakistan and Afghanistan, New Delhi has every reason to explore the proposition.

    Two, the UPA government has little reason to be defensive about Kashmir. It has conducted rather successful elections in the state, and its relations with the US and other major powers are stronger than ever before. It has no reason to be apprehensive about an international “tilt” towards Pakistan on Kashmir. In fact Obama’s initiative is premised on the belief that the balance between India and Pakistan has irrevocably shifted in favour of New Delhi.

    Three, although it has chosen not to publicise it, the UPA government has conducted a substantive bilateral dialogue on resolving the Kashmir dispute with Pakistan. This back channel negotiation, the first in decades, has been productive.

    That dialogue is in abeyance because of political instability in Pakistan and Islamabad’s inability to sustain its side of the bargain — to maintain a violence-free atmosphere. If Pakistan can credibly demonstrate after the Mumbai attacks that it can eliminate the sources of cross-border terrorism against India, it stands to reason that the progress in the Kashmir negotiations can indeed be consolidated.

    Four, despite India’s emphasis on bilateralism in its dealings with Pakistan, it is quite clear that New Delhi could well do with some international support, especially from the US, to clinch the promise of the peace process that has stalled since the Mumbai terror attacks. Using the weight of others to realise one’s own interests is very much part of intelligent statecraft.

    India has no reason to deny that during the Kargil war with Pakistan in the summer of 1999, the military confrontation with Islamabad during 2001-02, and in the effort to pressure Pakistan after the Mumbai terror attacks, the US role has been a positive one.

    India has everything to gain by embracing the essence of Obama’s idea — bringing stability to the region between the Indus and the Hindu Kush. That in turn would create a basis for the necessarily difficult discussion with the Obama administration on the appropriate tactics to achieve the shared strategic objectives with the US — defeating the Taliban, addressing the aspirations of the Pashtuns across the Durand Line, eliminating the sources of extremism in Pakistan, strengthening civilian control over the military in Islamabad, providing secure and legitimate borders to Pakistan, and integrating our two neighbours to the west in a framework of regional cooperation.

    It will be a pity if India does not grasp this historic opportunity because its leaders lack either the self-assurance or the strategic imagination to leverage Obama’s South Asia initiative.

    The writer is a professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of

    International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore express@expressindia.com

    SAF ZoneBy: Suresh | 27-Jan-2009 Reply | Forward Lets build a SAF zone (South Asian Federation), just like Euro zone, free movement of people and goods. Then it doesnt matter if Kashmir is with India or Pakistan
    Our Obama momentBy: Jithesh Panicker | 21-Jan-2009 Reply | Forward The columnist are going overboard with the mood of the moment. Change will not happen in a few day . This is because of the nature or the DNA of the two nation theory we cannot just wish it away. There is no permanent solution to the Kashmir issue. The only probability is to accept the current LOC as a border other than that other solutions will not be possible . When Benazir came to power Rajiv Gandhi was the PM both were riding popular waves of support but the situation never improved so to expect that some thing incredible is going to happen is like hoping for a miracle .So your expectation that Obama will help resolve or mitigate the Kashmir issue is like seeking a miracle from a soothsayer . Soon after the initial high we will all be left with a terrible Obama hangover. So lets be defensive but also know when we can go on the offense.
    US, India, Pak, POK and Kashmir valleyBy: Mark | 20-Jan-2009 Reply | Forward Good forward looking article. Since election of Obama, different think tanks in US are asking India to help decide future of Pakistan. India is not confident that it can handle the responsibility and the leadership it will need to show. We are nation of cowards. What india should say is that, all along the conflict is painted as struggle of kashmiri people. Kashmiri people need to come together. ok let us take that argument further. Pakistan forcibly occupied parts of kashmir. Hand ove all of the kashmir to India. Let us separate Jummu and Ladakh from kasmir valley and make it an integral state of India just like any other state. Combined kashmir should be given more autonomy but will still be ruled by india. Much like Puerto Rico is to USA. After 40 years, let us have lections on whether people want to stay as they are, become independent state, merge with Pak or merge with india. let the political process begin now.
    Obama can't be trustedBy: pm317 | 20-Jan-2009 Reply | Forward Having watched the US primary campaign and studied in close detail what Obama did to win this election, I would not trust him on anything. He is a wimp and an appeaser, appeasing the left and the right whenever it works for him and right now his focus is to get Pakistan in line with what he wants to do in Afghanistan. Pakistan is using Kashmir as a distraction and Obama is falling into the same trap as did other US administrations. India does well to be cautious. I can understand their slowness in giving this man their trust of whom we don't know anything about, even the US people who voted for him. If he can get Pakistan to stop supporting terrorist organization and their terror activities, then maybe something can be done to resolve Kashmir issue. You don't negotiate with states who use terrorists to air their political grievance.
    Our Obama MomentBy: Lokesh | 20-Jan-2009 Reply | Forward If US wants, 100,000 Indian troops can join US in afghanistan to finish off taliban. IN return, Kashmir dispute can be settled with kashmir remaining with India in its present form.
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