Despite the candidates’ colorful posters papering road signs and storefronts, the political atmosphere two weeks before Pakistan’s parliamentary elections is as bleak and foreboding as the grey winter sky shrouding much of the country.

Candidates have largely abstained from any meaningful campaigning given their fears of bombings and the government’s decision to discourage large public rallies. The December assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto has left the opposition without its most popular leader and cast a persistent pall over the run-up to the elections.

Many Pakistanis are convinced that the February 18 polling will be systematically rigged by the caretaker government and that, as a result, angry opposition supporters will erupt in violence. While US and European officials have pressed Pakistan to proceed with the vote, some here still expect the elections to be postponed at the last minute. Even if the vote is held, its credibility will be in doubt.

“The conditions are so abnormal that many people are questioning the very meaning and validity of the exercise, and they fear the results in such a polarized atmosphere can lead to mass bloodshed,” said Rifaat Hussain, a defense and political analyst. “Whoever is defeated will have an easy excuse not to accept the results.”

President Pervez Musharraf has repeatedly promised that the elections will be free and fair. But opposition groups charge that the president, who stepped down as army chief in November, will manipulate the outcome to favour his political party and preserve his role in power. Leaders of both main opposition parties have said their workers have been harassed.