At one level, the February 18 election results can be interpreted as an expression of discontent with President Pervez Musharraf and his cronies. The positive macro-economic indicators and large development projects did not mean much for the common man. He was incensed due to the rising cost of living, which can be blamed on the government’s poor micro-economic management policies and decisions. Moreover, there was a growing disenchantment with the manner in which the war on terror was being fought. There was a lot of anger especially on Benazir Bhutto’s death.

At another level, it was an expression of the people’s resentment towards symbols of feudalism. For instance, the fact that politicians like Begum Abida Hussain, her husband Fakhar Imam and daughter could not harness the PPP’s popularity is being put down to arrogance. This is not to suggest that this is the end of authoritarian politics in Pakistan or that the influence of big landowners has diminished across the board. But the fact is that people can tell the difference with a big landowner like Benazir Bhutto, who despite her centralised party structure was more accessible to people and much less vindictive than even her own father.

The elections were relatively free and fair mainly because the army decided to step away from politics and not interfere in micro-management of election results. Incidentally, such distancing always takes place when the army is under pressure and domestically demoralised to play a proactive role in politics.

But should the elections be seen as a systemic shift in Pakistan politics? There are many structural issues which must be addressed for such a shift to transpire. To start with, a lot will depend upon what choices are made for the formation of the next government. The two main victorious parties, the PPP and Nawaz Sharif’s PMLN, have quite a bit of reconciliation to achieve before the picture can be clear.

Second, the parties need time to formulate their agendas and policies on how will they negotiate power with the military in the long term. Parties must come up with concrete plans on critical policy issues such as relations with India and the war on terror, for example, as part of the roadmap to democracy.

In any case, the road will be rocky due to a third factor, the economy. The Shaukat Aziz-Musharraf regime packed up at a time when the government was faced with the painful issue of major price adjustment. The interim government also did not take any action to rationalise prices of electricity, oil and gas. If the burden of price adjustment falls on the next government without the financial realities being explained, the new regime could soon be faced with a frustrated public.

With oil and electricity prices going up, all other commodities are likely to become expensive. A likely scenario is that while struggling to grapple with the economic problems, the next regime will fall back on the pet strategy of doling out benefits or subsidies to its immediate clientele. This would result in the same old stories of corruption and mismanagement, which would then give the army an opportunity to strike back after two to three years. (This is the time period which the army has calculated it needs to improve its image.) The fear is that if Washington is not happy with the government’s performance on the war on terror, it could again squeeze Islamabad financially. The word would then go around that politicians are incompetent. So, price adjustment at this stage is a major issue that parties must deal with even before they decide on who will become the prime minister.

There is, of course, the issue of the continuation in office of Pervez Musharraf, who alone is a major source of future instability. Thus, a formula has to be devised to push him out. Of course, the best option would be for him to resign of his own accord — but this does not seem likely.

Indeed, this is a happy moment for Pakistan. But will the joy be ephemeral or more long-lasting?

Islamabad based, Siddiqa is the author of ‘Military Inc.: Inside Pakistan’s Military Economy’ asidd66@yahoo.com