But should the elections be seen as a systemic shift in Pakistan politics? There are many structural issues which must be addressed for such a shift to transpire. To start with, a lot will depend upon what choices are made for the formation of the next government. The two main victorious parties, the PPP and Nawaz Sharif’s PMLN, have quite a bit of reconciliation to achieve before the picture can be clear.

Second, the parties need time to formulate their agendas and policies on how will they negotiate power with the military in the long term. Parties must come up with concrete plans on critical policy issues such as relations with India and the war on terror, for example, as part of the roadmap to democracy.

In any case, the road will be rocky due to a third factor, the economy. The Shaukat Aziz-Musharraf regime packed up at a time when the government was faced with the painful issue of major price adjustment. The interim government also did not take any action to rationalise prices of electricity, oil and gas. If the burden of price adjustment falls on the next government without the financial realities being explained, the new regime could soon be faced with a frustrated public.

With oil and electricity prices going up, all other commodities are likely to become expensive. A likely scenario is that while struggling to grapple with the economic problems, the next regime will fall back on the pet strategy of doling out benefits or subsidies to its immediate clientele. This would result in the same old stories of corruption and mismanagement, which would then give the army an opportunity to strike back after two to three years. (This is the time period which the army has calculated it needs to improve its image.) The fear is that if Washington is not happy with the government’s performance on the war on terror, it could again squeeze Islamabad financially. The word would then go around that politicians are incompetent. So, price adjustment at this stage is a major issue that parties must deal with even before they decide on who will become the prime minister.

... contd.