What can be done? The current dismal situation places high expectations on the next Pakistani government. A new multi-faceted Taliban policy is needed that reflects the lessons learnt. In the short term, the US and Pakistani militaries must seal the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and cut arms and drug routes to and from tribal areas. Second, a new jirga of tribal elders and warlords must be called. The message should be emphatically clear: the writ of the state is supreme, and pending a constitutional amendment, all living in the tribal areas are equal citizens of the republic. Third, political agents must not be simply replaced by those that favour Islamabad but by a whole new set of popular and well-respected political representatives. Fourth, military and political strategy must work in tandem with the socio-economic renewal of the tribal areas.

All of this must be achieved pragmatically and at times simultaneously with the looming fear of a major blowback — increased troop casualties and suicide attacks in major cities. To avoid failure Islamabad and Washington should focus their policies on the fundamental reality that the tribal areas are part of Pakistan, and the Pashtuns despite their desire for more autonomy are Pakistanis.

The writer researches American foreign policy towards South Asia in Washington DC