At ground zero of what has now become the Patidar factor for the December 11 poll, an undercurrent against the BJP and Chief Minister Narendra Modi is more pronounced than what many in the BJP believe to be a minor irritant. Apart from rebel Dhiru Gajera’s highly visible campaign—he’s contesting on a Congress ticket from Surat (North), the shift in affection is evident among a considerable section of Saurashtra’s migrant Patidars, the Leuva Patels, here in Surat’s diamond district of Varachha. This, in effect, will mean a shift in the voting pattern of five-lakh Patel families in Saurashtra.

But last week, former chief minister and rebel leader Keshubhai Patel’s comment that that he is still with the BJP almost threatened to take the steam out of the Patidar movement and the BJP rebels.

Anticipating that Keshubhai Patel’s remarks would be milked by the BJP, the umbrella body of the rebellion, the Sardar Patel Utkarsh Committee, released an advertisement in local dailies on Monday carrying an appeal by Patidar patriarch Keshubhai Patel. Attacking Modi’s “festivals, vibrant summits, narcissistic publicity campaigns, usurping credit for Narmada waters”, it showed a towering Keshubhai, finger raised, with a caption: “Keshubhai is unhappy. He appeals for change.”

The half-page advertisement claimed Keshubhai was still their leader and gave reasons on why there should be a change of government. The advertisement was issued apparently to preempt a BJP one that was to show Narendra Modi and Keshubhai Patel together.

“Within Surat it would have a limited impact on the Surat north seat, but through its over five-lakh families in Saurashtra, it sure will knock off the BJP’s numbers,” says Laxman Dobaria, chairman of the Federation of Gujarat Weavers’ Association. “The Patidars are supporting the BJP rebels and that obviously will hurt the BJP wherever the Patidars form a major chunk of voters. The Patidars grievances include corruption in government although it is commonly believed this is a clean administration,” says a Patidar builder in the city with links to both the BJP and Congress.

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