This spring had brought a new season of peace and prosperity to Kashmir. The tourism industry was blossoming with nine to eleven thousand arrivals daily. Violence was substantially down. The separatist leadership was demoralised and divided. Mainstream political activity was at its peak in the anticipation that the 2008 assembly polls would finally shift the centre in Kashmir politics.

In fact, Hurriyat hardliner Syed Ali Shah Geelani’s poll boycott looked absurd. He was alone even in the separatist camp and the moderates had decided not to run an anti-election campaign. Still half a year away, the elections had become a popular topic everywhere. Unlike the 1996 and 2002 polls, the discussion was not about voter turnout but instead intricate analyses of the anticipated contests. Everything was going according to plan: the Centre had stopped mentioning the separatist leadership even occasionally. The peace process now revolved around government-sponsored working groups alone. Kashmir had even shifted away from the larger Indo-Pak discourse where the new Pak leadership had publicly abandoned the centrality of Kashmir to Islamabad’s relationship with New Delhi.

Then came the transfer of 40 acres of forest land to the Amarnath Shrine Board. First, there were a few routine political statements, opposing the government move. And then, the entire Valley rose in protest, bringing life to a sudden halt. Hundreds of thousands came out on the streets. There were processions. There was violence too but, this time, stones had replaced bullets. These protests, however, were spontaneous, taking even astute observers by surprise.

... contd.