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Persian Jigsaw

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  • “There’s no trust on the Arab side about Iran’s intentions,” said Christian Koch, research director for international studies at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai. “There are concerns of Iran’s nuclear programme for military purposes. There are concerns about Iran’s influence in Iraq, over the unsettled political situation in Lebanon and over the dispute regarding” Iran’s occupation of three islands claimed by the United Arab Emirates.

    Some in the region believe, however, that the US report might soften the mistrust between Iran and its neighbours and lead to a degree of rapprochement. Nabil Abdel-Fattah, an analyst with Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, said the report might help Tehran “widen the rift” between Washington and its Arab allies, who had feared that they would be retaliated against if the US attacked Iran.

    “The report sends assurances to the Gulf countries and particularly to the Saudi kingdom,” Fattah said. “The Gulf countries know that if the US strikes Iran, they will turn into Iranian hostages.”

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    The view across much of the Middle East is that Iran’s defiance of the Bush administration was clever policy that was, at least temporarily, vindicated by US intelligence. It is likely to further enhance the image of

    Ahmadinejad, whose popularity in the Arab street is rooted in a belligerence toward the West, a quality many Arabs wish their own leaders would show more often.

    Speaking in Iran on Wednesday, Ahmadinejad was quoted by the state news agency saying the US report was a “final blow” to Iran’s critics and was a clear message “that the Iranian people were on the right course. Today, Iran has turned to a nuclear country and all world countries have accepted this fact.”

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