In A report that comes as a contradiction to the Ministry of Power’s (MoP) projections, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoP&NG) has observed that contrary to all expectations, there would be a “marginal shortage” of gas in the country in fiscal 2011-12. This is contrary to the projections of the Ministry of Power — projections that are widely believed in the industry — which says there would be a surplus of approximately 91 million metric standard cubic metres per day (scmd) of gas in the year 2011-12, which would be much higher in 2016-17.

The Petroleum Ministry has said that a surplus would arise only if gas is made available from transnational pipelines or if there are gas finds in the Mahanadi basin. It also says that if commercial production of gas in the fields owned by GSPC and ONGC is delayed, the shortage may continue even beyond 2011-12. “In view of the above, it is difficult to predict with certainty that there would be surplus gas in 2011-12,” says the report.

The Power Ministry report says that there will be a sudden jump of 82 million scmd in gas demand in 2007-08 compared to 2006-07. However, while working out this difference, the projected gas demand has been taken as 179 million scmd, in line with the report of the 11th Plan sub-group. The figure has been compared to the current gas consumption of 97 million scmd. However, the current gas consumption does not reflect the actual demand for gas and the two figures are not comparable. The report goes on to say that the total demand of gas has not been captured and is much higher.

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