The third phase of polling in Uttar Pradesh will take place on April 18 in 57 Assembly constituencies spread over 10 districts. What makes this region, which shares a long border with Nepal, politically significant is the strong Muslim presence.

Compared to the overall population of 18 per cent in the state, Muslims constitute about 30 per cent of the electorate in these 57 constituencies. While on 15 seats, they make up more than 40 per cent of the voters, in 17 others, they constitute between 30 and 40 per cent of the electorate. Another seven constituencies have about 20-30 per cent Muslims voters.

The Indian Express-CNN-IBN-CSDS pre-poll survey, conducted in the third week of March, indicated that 54 per cent of the Muslims would vote for the Samajwadi Party (SP), 14 per cent for the Congress and 12 per cent preferred the BSP. Since the success of the SP largely depends upon how the Muslims and the Yadavs vote —- they are the party’s traditional vote banks —- the third round of elections are likely to be crucial for SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav.

Past results too indicate the SP’s strong presence in the region. During the last Assembly elections —- which witnessed the highest turnout here, of 58.9 per cent, against the state average of 53.8 —- the party polled 25 per cent of the votes and won 25 of these 57 seats. The BSP, with 19.9 per cent votes, was a distant second with 9 seats.

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