Blessed are the poor in spirit: for theirs is the kingdom of heaven.” With apologies to Matthew, India’s poor are destined to inherit the Indian economy. These general elections reflect glorious uncertainty. However, there is certainty that one of three coalitions — primary, secondary, tertiary — will shape the Centre’s economic policies for the next few years. There is also certainty that the core of these three coalitions will be the Congress, BJP or CPM. Thus, manifestos of these three merit attention. Not only can these three manifestos be contrasted, one can also contrast 2009 manifestos with 2004 vintages.

In the 2004 versus 2009 face-off, the CPM is consistent and let’s not forget Oscar Wilde, “Consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative.” However, both the Congress and BJP have moved to the left in five years. Indeed, there is a blurring of differences across the three 2009 manifestos in economic content. Therefore, this sinister development augurs our future. Sinister is the word to use, because it actually means on the left, not baleful or malign. True, there are differences between manifestos, such as in the case of the demographic dividend. The Congress thinks 70 per cent of the population is under 35, the BJP thinks two-thirds. Both are right. 69.8 per cent is for 2001, while 67.5 per cent is for 2006 (latest data). It is interesting that the Congress has chosen figures from an NDA era and the BJP has chosen from an UPA era. Or if generalised, perhaps it is simply the case that the BJP has more up-to-date data.

... contd.