Last year, a World Bank report did talk about 130 million people having been pushed above the poverty line because of food and fuel crises and this may have been compounded by a financial crisis. However, we don’t know. BJP 2009 states, “It is a telling comment on the UPA’s performance that a whopping 55 million people have been pushed below the poverty line over the past five years. This is according to a study by the Indian Statistical Institute.” Since reading this, I have been trying to track down the ISI study, which must perforce be based on an NSS thin-sample.

Moving on to the CPM, it doesn’t believe in BPL. In both 2004 and 2009, it wants universal PDS (public distribution system), no targeting. And stated it more strongly in 2004 — “BPL cards should be available for all those who are not income-tax payers.” It is thus a bad idea to pay income taxes, rich farmers included. Since policies are always based on the lowest common multiple of bad ideas, we can arrive at only one conclusion. India is a poor country and everyone in India must be poor. Everyone must be entitled to subsidies. Before mentioning the issue of resources, let’s flag another odd development.

Ask any economist what India’s interest rate should be and there will be no answer. However, economists rarely have answers. Politicians have answers, even if those are cooked up by defunct economists. For instance, CPM 2009 wants credit at 4 per cent for agriculture and self-help groups (SHGs). The manifesto doesn’t specify whether this is a real or nominal rate of interest. But it must be nominal, party manifestos really talk about real matters. Since the manifesto also questions government figures about an inflation rate of 4 per cent, the CPM clearly wants a negative real rate of interest, something that will make even defunct economists scratch their heads over. Congress 2009 doesn’t mention a specific figure. However, small and marginal farmers must have credit at “lower rates” and all farmers will be waived interest if they repay bank loans. Since those who don’t (or can’t) repay will also be waived interest and principal, we have 0 per cent interest for farmers, something bank managers will scratch their heads over. The BJP also wants 4 per cent for agriculture, educational loans, spliced with higher interest rates on deposits by elder citizens. Let’s not forget the CPM’s insistence on EPF rate of more than 8.5 per cent, something other two parties don’t mention, but won’t contest.

... contd.