PM heads for frozen summit today

This was one of the conference’s main objectives since the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol — in which Annex-I (developed) countries are required to reduce overall emissions to 5.2% below 1990 levels — comes to an end in 2012.

And Copenhagen was supposed to finalise more ambitious cuts for these countries beyond 2012 up till either 2017 or 2020. But at a meeting on Wednesday,the Danish government told representatives from Brazil,South Africa,India and China — the so-called BASIC group — that a final agreement on reduction targets for all rich countries did not look possible.

Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh wasn’t ready to call this a failure but said only a heroic effort from developed countries,especially the United States,was needed. “It’s clear that the Kyoto Protocol is in intensive care unit if not already dead. What it needs is a number of oxygen cylinders,one of which is certainly in the White House,” Ramesh said.

That the divide is deep was once again underlined today when the BASIC group refused to attend a meeting called by the developed countries — United States,the European Union,Japan,Australia,Denmark and the United Kingdom — to informally discuss a possible Copenhagen outcome. Reason: countries from Africa and small island states were not invited,a member of the Indian negotiating team said.

“It was probably an attempt to cut a deal with the big developing countries and create a rift in the G-77 bloc. We certainly can’t let that happen. We cannot ignore the interests of the African countries and the least developed countries,” he said. Ramesh confirmed he had received an invite to attend the meeting and the BASIC countries had decided not to go. He did not elaborate.

The Indian delegation,however,did have a bilateral meeting with some US senators led by former Presidential nominee John Kerry.

But even at so late a stage,fresh drafts came out of both working groups,the one on Kyoto Protocol and the other finalizing the long-term action to deal with climate change (LCA).

The new draft LCA text includes a global goal to limit temperature rise to one degree Centigrade and another to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from rich countries by 100% by the year 2040. Both are new formulations but the entire text of the new draft is within brackets meaning it’s up for negotiation.

Meanwhile,in New Delhi,ahead of the PM’s visit,Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao said: “It appears that the CoP 15 Chair is working towards a political agreement,not a legally binding agreement…Bali mandate that would set the Parties on track for a comprehensive legal framework (in due course) during 2010.”

India,she said,wants a “balanced,equitable and ambitious outcome” which would see participation of over 110 heads of state or government.

“The developed countries need to come up with ambitious emission reduction numbers. This is at the heart of the outcome at Copenhagen and will be critical to its success. The numbers put on the table so far are unfortunately disappointing,” she said.

Asked how would India see a political document “instead of a binding agreement,” Rao said,“It certainly would not match our expectations. But there is life beyond Copenhagen.”

Singh is expected to make an intervention at the plenary on Friday which will be addressed by Rasmussen and UN Secretary General Ban ki-Moon. It will be attended by US President Barack Obama,Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

Rao today made it clear that India would neither agree to legally binding emission cuts nor a peaking year for its carbon emissions. Any international review of India’s voluntary and domestically-funded mitigation actions would also be unacceptable,she said. Rao said a meeting in the second half of the next year in Mexico is being mooted at achieving the legal framework.

(with ENS,New Delhi)