Pakistan’s politicians have clearly scored a major victory against what is euphemistically called ‘the establishment’ in Pakistan. But the battle between ‘the establishment’ and the politicians is far from over.

Pervez Musharraf has yet to understand that his rejection by the people requires him either to step down or at least accept a diminution of his role. Musharraf might mistakenly see the election results as comparable to the victory of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) in the 1988 polls held immediately after the death of General Zia-ul-Haq.

Then, Zia-ul-Haq’s successor Ghulam Ishaq Khan retained considerable influence as president even after Bhutto became prime minister and eventually used Zia’s constitutional amendments to overthrow the elected government. But in 1988, Pakistan’s establishment had not been as thoroughly discredited as it is now.

This time, the country’s major political parties have agreed on a common minimum platform that aims at restoring the Pakistani Constitution, rehabilitating its judiciary and moving towards national reconciliation. The army appears to have decided to pull out of politics. That said, ‘the establishment’, made up of politicised generals, intelligence officials, and Pakistan’s managerial class — bankers, civil servants, some overseas businessmen, World Bank beneficiaries and former or current IMF employees — will not give up easily. Soon there will be rumours of corruption and mismanagement to discredit the elected leadership and efforts to create rifts among them.

So far, PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari and the PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif have shown that the politicians have learnt from the experience of the 1990s. Zardari, in particular, has emerged as a statesman in contrast to the demonisation he was subjected to for being married to Mohtarma Bhutto.

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