The numbers may favour a National Conference-Congress coalition in the state, but the 2008 Assembly election has already changed the very contours of mainstream politics in Jammu and Kashmir. The verdict has put forth two contradictory but forceful ideologies in the state.

The soft separatism of the PDP and an agenda to seek a resolution for Kashmir outside the ambit of the Constitution has helped it improve its tally from 16 in 2002 to 21 in 2008. The PDP’s Muslim-centric ideology has helped the party sneak into the hilly districts of Poonch and Rajouri — the non-Kashmiri Muslim districts in Jammu province. The party has opened its account by winning Mendhar and Darhal and made inroads into eight other Muslim-dominated constituencies. The party has taken 82,105 votes in Jammu province.

On the other hand, the BJP has registered an unprecedented victory. From one constituency in the 2002 House, the BJP has managed to jump to 11 seats. The party took 3,45,908 votes in Jammu. The party first fuelled polarisation during the Amarnath agitation and its ministers in Punjab personally organised economic blockade of the Valley. And once the elections were announced, the party’s campaign turned the Amarnath land row into an effective poll plank. The BJP has taken over the Hindu heartland of Jammu city-Kathua-Samba in Jammu province, replacing the Congress and the NC.

Though the NC has retained its largest single party status, its numbers have matched its 2002 score of 28. This time, the oldest and the only pan-J-K party has Srinagar city to thank where all the eight seats voted for it.

... contd.