Here is some good news. The South-West Monsoon is likely to hit Kerala coast about five to seven days before the scheduled date of June 1.

A convection developing in the Arabian Sea may cause a strong south equatorial current to push the monsoon system to the Kerala coast at an earlier date, according to some global forecast models. The forecast made by the US-based Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA) shows the arrival of dark monsoon clouds along Kerala coast in May 20-28. Another US based agency, International Research Institute for Climate Studies (IRI) has predicted heavy rains on the west coast. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to forecast the arrival of the monsoon at the Kerala coast within next two days.

Already the persistence of convection over southeast Bay of Bengal has caused early arrival of the monsoon in the Andaman Seas. Usually the south-west monsoon arrive at south Andaman Seas around May 15. This year it arrived on May 10.

According to IMD, the formation of low pressure area in the adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal coupled with further strengthening of westerlies would further cause the advancement of the monsoon in its eastern arm. The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast has also predicted on this line.

Thus both the eastern and the western arms of the monsoon system are likely to cause early arrival of the monsoon on the mainland. Recent events in Malaysia, Thailand and forecasts by global agencies confirm early arrival of the monsoon.