On the face of it, the decision by the leaders of the ruling civilian coalition in Islamabad to impeach President Pervez Musharraf should herald the end of the General’s political career. There is no doubt that Musharraf today is a pale shadow of the soldier who presented himself as a saviour of Pakistan in a military coup in October 1999. Independent opinion polls show that more than 80 per cent of Pakistani people want Musharraf to quit. That does not necessarily mean Musharraf will exit gracefully.

The Pakistan People’s Party, which emerged as the largest political formation in general elections held in February, has been reluctant to rock the boat by demanding Musharraf’s ouster. That it has changed its mind this week and agreed to work with Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz Sharif) against Musharraf marks a new phase in the nation’s deepening political crisis. Pakistan’s civilian leaders, even in the rare moments that they find unity, are weak when pitted against the armed forces that constitute the permanent establishment. As it was said of Prussia, it is the army that owns the nation in Pakistan. At least until now.

Musharraf’s chosen successor as the army chief, Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, has a big role in picking the winner in the current confrontation. Despite persistent rumours about a split between Musharraf and Kiani, they ganged up recently to undermine the government’s attempt to bring Pakistan’s all-powerful intelligence agency, the ISI, under civilian control. Equally important in shaping the outcome is Washington. Although evidence points to the uncomfortable truth that the Pak army and ISI are part of the problem in the war on terror in Afghanistan, the Bush administration has been hesitant to support a structural change in Pakistan. India holds few cards. New Delhi, however, can help move the scales in Pakistan in three ways — hold its tongue, exercise military restraint in the face of the Pak army’s provocations, and give no opportunity for the ISI to paint the civilian leaders in Islamabad as lackeys of India.