By this afternoon, a western disturbance and cyclonic circulation over South Pakistan had brought rain across Northwest India, Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh. The system is expected to move eastwards, bringing more rain.

Day temperatures have already fallen by 2-4ºC over plains of Northwest India and are likely to fall further by 2-3ºC over the Indo-Gangetic plain over the next 3 days, says the IMD forecast.

Among the stations that recorded 10-30 mm of rain are Ambala, Chandigarh, Hissar, Patiala, Jammu, Shimla, Sundarnagar, Bikaner, Guna, Gwalior, Jaipur, Jaisalmer and Delhi. The heaviest rainfall was recorded at weather stations in Punjab and Haryana.

All this is good news for the wheat crop, seven weeks before its harvest.

“This spell of rain is required both for lowering of the unseasonal high temperature in February and maintaining the moisture in the soil,” said A K Gogoi, Additional Director General, Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR). “This is just the right temperature, vital time when the grain is filling up,” he said.

Experts say a one-degree-Celsius rise in temperature over a 5-degree increase can reduce productivity by up to 450 kg per hectare. Last week, temperatures across the wheat belt had increased by an average of 5-6 degrees. Last year, it’s believed, a warm February had contributed to the cut in wheat output by nearly 7% — leading to imports for the first time in six years.

The government came out with a list of incentives for sowing wheat. With reports of good sowing, setting a high target of 75.53 million tonnes for the current year. However, in the latest round of crop-cutting experiments, it stuck to a more conservative estimate of 72.5 tonnes.

The Ministry of Agriculture sent letters to wheat-growing states to press sprinklers and ensure round- the-clock electricity for water pumps. This was precautionary, they said, as an internal review had noted that all was well with the crop so far.

The reason for this optimism is that temperature in the early stages of crop sowing has been fine — a minimum of 5 degrees Celsius and a maximum of 20 degrees C in the North West plains. An internal report by the Karnal-based Directorate of Wheat Research had said that most of the production is likely to come from the increase in the area sown — 1.7 million hectares. This can translate into 4.6 million tonnes of additional wheat compared to the previous year.