So does that mean India will not suffer any penalty if it conducts a test? No. It does not. There are other US laws that require US to sanction a nuclear test by a non-nuclear weapon state. In particular, Section 102 of the Arms Export Control Act (AECA) requires the President to impose a range of sanctions on such a country. India did experience such sanction between May 1998 and September 2001 after the Indian tests in May 1998. However, even under Section 102 of AECA, the President does have the authority to waive the sanctions even though such a waiver requires congressional approval.

The important fact that should be kept in mind is, however, the fact that no additional sanctions beyond those which are already mandated are required to be made as a result of the 123 agreement. On the other hand the agreement reinforces in an explicit manner the waiver authority already granted to the President in the imposition of sanctions against India if India were to conduct a test in future. There is no guarantee that the US President will not impose any sanctions on India in the event of a test. Much will depend on the circumstances that compel India to conduct a test in future. As for present all analysts, with a handful of exceptions, are in agreement that India need not conduct a test in the present environment.

India, however, fully retains the right to conduct a test in future if it considers that the security environment has changed because of some action by an external power, most notably a test by a state India considers to be inimical to Indian security. In that case India will conduct a test. Depending on the circumstance the US may or may not impose any sanctions on India. But those are decisions for future leaders in both the countries to take. The only sure fact is that India has the right to conduct a test and it will do so taking into account all factors that contribute to its national security. There is absolutely no reason to believe that any of Indian rights have been conceded in the 123 agreement.

... contd.