The July rainfall has practically disappointed farmers in the southern peninsula, Gujarat, Maharashtra and parts of northeastern India. The official weather forecasting agency, India Meteorological Department (IMD), has not extended any immediate hope for the revival of the situation. Its numerical weather prediction models have said “subdued rainfall activity would continue over central and western India in the next three to four days”.

The US-based Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Administration (COLA) in its short-term forecast for the period till July 26 has also confirmed low rainfall of 20 to 35 mm in western and parts of central and southern India. It, however, predicted heavy rainfall of over 150 mm in the heartland of north India, eastern and northeastern India, Andhra Pradesh and parts of central India.

According to COLA, the situation is likely to improve after July 27, when most parts of the country would receive good showers.

The other US-based agencies like Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction and weather service of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have noted the transition from La Nina to neutral conditions in the central and east-central equitorial Pacific during June. La Nina or cooling of Pacific waters below normal is usually responsible for good rains and the country enjoyed good rains in June, this year.

However, the possibility of emergence of the spoilsport, El Nino (warming of Pacific waters) is ruled out. This dispels the apprehensions of a severe drought year to an extent.

Weather conditions also depend upon the surrounding sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRICS) predicted “a weak positive dipole” in the equatorial Indian Ocean with slightly below average SSTs near Indonesia and slightly above average SSTs near the African coast.

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