The MJO, which generally remains over the Indian region for only 4-5 days, is likely to hold on till the first week of June, which could help in the revival of the monsoon.

Scientists said if the monsoon did not revive by the first week of next month, it could cause serious concern. The monsoon generally spreads to most parts of peninsular India within 10-12 days of hitting Kerala. The sowing of paddy in these regions takes place around June 10. If the monsoon fails to revive in the first week of June, the sowing could be delayed.

The monsoon’s advance was disrupted last year by cyclone Golu in the Arabian Sea. Only after a revival happens in the first week of June will the country see sustained rainfall, scientists said.