When the arithmetic was complete, both major political combines found they had been dealt a big blow by the MNS in the sprawling urban hub of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region.

Comprising 60 seats, almost one-fifth of the state’s total, the region has a tremendous political significance, and the growth of the MNS in this belt has been at the cost of both , the Congress-NCP and the Shiv Sena-BJP.

The percentage of seats each combine won tells the story. In 2004, of 47 seats, the Congress-NCP won 24 or 51.06 per cent, while the Sena-BJP won 19, or 40.42 per cent. In 2009, with 60 seats in the region, the Congress-NCP won 26, or 43.3 per cent, a decline by seven percentage points. The Shiv Sena-BJP won 18, or 30 per cent, down 10 percentage points.

The MNS has won eight seats, a solid 13.33 per cent of the total.

What’s more, put together, the Sena-BJP and the MNS have won as many seats as the Congress-NCP, 26. Clearly, the Marathi manoos issue is working.

Political analyst Professor Venkatesh Kumar says one reason for the comparatively poor showing of the Congress-NCP in the Mumbai region is a series of wrong decisions taken by the Congress, including selection of non-Marathi candidates. “Mumbai’s Mahrashtrians want local candidates who speak their tongue. The Congress selected mostly non-Marathi candidates,” he said.

But he concedes the MNS has had an impressive showing in Mumbai. “No other regional party in the recent past has made such an impact. The MNS has cleverly tapped the traditional Sena constituencies where voters felt ignored and they have moved out from the Sena towards the MNS,” he said.

... contd.