If internal security was paramount to the Indo-Burmese equation, the growing Chinese influence in Burma, after the latter was shunned by many countries in 1989, has also alarmed South Block. Sharing a 2204 km border with Burma, China is the lifeline of the ruling junta and supplies it with everything from food grains to weapons. Much to New Delhi’s chagrin, the security scenario got more complex when in 2000 Pakistan also supplied weapons worth $ 2.5 million to Burma. Left with no options, India jumped in and supplied 105 light field guns, 5.56 mm rifles, machine guns and four naval surveillance aircraft. It is only because of this deft thinking that New Delhi has an assurance that the Chinese will not get infrastructure projects west of Chindwin river, a tributary of the mighty Irrawaddy and also close to the Indian border. Burma is involved in Mekong-Ganga Cooperation, seen as an alternative to China’s Kunming initiative. It has also agreed to act as a strategic gateway from India to Asean countries.

In 2005 the ruling junta allowed the Indian navy’s surveillance planes to overfly the Coco Islands to satisfy New Delhi’s long-standing apprehension that Burma had allowed China a station on this island to listen in on tests at the Interim Missile Testing Range at Chandipur. And Pakistan’s ham-handed attempt to take over the mazaar of the last Mughal emperor, Bahadur Shah Zafar, in Rangoon was rebuffed by the Burmese government.

Although the EU-US wants India to repeat its Nepal performance in Burma, India knows that the two situations are very different. The fact is that the strategic levers at India’s command in Nepal are missing in Burma. Indo-Nepal trade stands at $ 2 billion with Kathmandu relying totally on New Delhi for fuel supplies and 70 per cent of its exports and 65 per cent of its imports. India may share a 1338 km border with Burma, but bilateral trade is a sluggish $ 569 million, with Burma having direct sea access and strategic lines of infrastructure and communication to Kunming in China.

... contd.