If there is one seat that will determine whether Gujarat remains the BJP’s laboratory, it is this one spread along both sides of Varachha Road, Surat’s diamond district. The constituency, Surat (North), is set for a keen contest between BJP rebel and diamond baron Dhiru Gajera, who is contesting on a Congress ticket, and former Surat Diamond Association (SDA) president Nanubhai Vanani of the BJP.

Gajera, who has elder brother Vasant and diamond tycoon Jivraj Dharukawala for support, has been leading a shrill anti-Modi campaign. On the streets, too, Gajera’s is a more visible campaign than Vanani’s.

As Gajera and Vanani fight it out, the real tussle is between the money-rich diamond traders and the migrant Leuva Patidars of Saurashtra. At the root of this tussle is the fact that Narendra Modi dislodged Keshubhai Patel, the Patidar patriarch, in 2001 though the Patidars form the backbone of the BJP’s march to power in Gujarat.

But Gajera knows how to use this to make an emotional appeal to voters. “The hurt is real and strong on the ground,” says Vasant Gajera.

Gajera won the 2002 election on a BJP ticket by a margin of 12,518 votes. Of the 2,04,937 votes in Surat (North) this election, his home district Amreli accounts for 80 per cent of the 48,000 Patidar votes. Gajera is also assured of the 16,000 Muslim votes that go to the Congress.

As if that wasn’t enough, Keshubhai Patel publicly blessed the Gajera brothers at their residence. If Vanani and the BJP still manage an upset, it might seal Gujarat for Narendra Modi for the next 10 years.