Nepal’s major political festival — the first anniversary of the Republic —was officially celebrated with little fanfare. President Rambaran Yadav hosted a reception on May 15; the day monarchy was abolished last year. Interestingly, the Communist Party of Maoists (CPN-M), the party which was in government until a month ago, and in the forefront of the struggle for the Republic, boycotted the official function. Even the deputy speaker of the constituent assembly who belongs to the CPN-M skipped it. This is certainly an ominous sign.

At a parallel function, Maoist leaders accused other parties of trying to restore monarchy with the help of ‘all-pervasive’ India. CPN-M chief Prachanda said former King Gyanendra’s visit to Delhi was not without motive, implying that Delhi and other political parties had stuck a deal, first to restore Gyanendra as the monarch, and then get him to abdicate in favour of his 8-year-old grandson Hridayendra.

If he is to be believed, Madhav Kumar Nepal’s success as prime minister is part of that understanding. The 61-year old former king moved to the Narayanhiti royal palace after succeeding his brother Birendra, a victim of fratricide, in a palace shootout on June 1, 2001.

But in less than seven years, his attempt to convert the palace into the centre of all state power brought down the 240-year old institution of monarchy, pitted against a 19-day mass movement, backed by the international community. But now, political instability and the fragmentation of pro-republic forces have eroded the credibility of Prachanda and G.P Koirala, who led the transition government, and brought their reputations to the level of Gyandendra’s in his absolute monarchy years.

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