Those who hoped that the arrival in power of Barack Obama and Raúl Castro would bring a thaw in the continuing 50-year cold war between the United States and Cuba so far have little to cheer. The Obama administration has lifted restrictions imposed by George Bush on visits and remittances to the island by Cuban-Americans, and has resumed discreet talks on co-operation in practical matters such as migration, drug-trafficking and postal services. But administration officials have said that they will not lift the economic embargo imposed on Fidel Castro’s regime in 1960 until Cuba takes steps towards political and economic freedom. For his part, Raúl Castro, who replaced his brother at the head of Cuba’s government in 2006, has offered to talk to the Americans, but insists that the island’s communist political system is non-negotiable.

On both sides there are pressures for further change. These are more visible in the United States. On November 19th the foreign-relations committee of the House of Representatives was due to discuss a bill to lift the ban on Americans travelling to Cuba. Supporters of this measure claim to have close to the 218 House votes required to approve it. Its chances in the Senate look slimmer.

Public opinion favours ending the travel ban. More surprisingly, a recent poll found that a majority of Cuban-American respondents do, too. But most Republicans and some influential Democrats still support the embargo. The administration has been guarded on the travel ban. But if it is lifted, the rest of the embargo might soon follow, as different business lobbies press for a piece of the action in Cuba, says Julia Sweig of the Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank. American hotel companies would doubtless want to be allowed to invest there, for example.

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