Opinion Restraining Pakistan

Beijing’s warm reception to Gilani and its strong defence of Pakistan’s territorial sovereignty seem to affirm the claim in both capitals that their partnership is “taller than the mountains and deeper than the oceans”.

In diplomacy,however,what is left unsaid is often more important than the soundbytes put out for popular consumption. Those who closely monitor China-Pakistan relations point to one important omission during Gilani’s visit — the absence of a package of financial assistance.

Reports from Beijing say the Chinese leaders told Gilani that it is not their policy to provide cash transfers or bridge budget deficits in other countries.

A rising China has lots of cash and the demonstrated capacity to implement massive infrastructure projects anywhere in the world. But Beijing is not yet ready to become the “lender of last resort” to failing states even if they are China’s “all-weather friends”.

That job remains with the multilateral financial institutions controlled by Washington. China appears to have reminded Gilani that he has no choice but to negotiate with Washington if he wants to keep Pakistan’s economy afloat.

If Gilani had any expectation that China would replace the United States,in the event that the Pakistan army chief,General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani chooses to divorce Washington,that appears to have been dashed.

Beijing as a bridge

Gilani’s visit underlined Islamabad’s miscalculations about the nature of the current dynamics between China and the United States.

China certainly has ambitions to replace the United States as the dominant power in Eurasia in the distant future. But Chinese communists are realistic enough to recognise the importance of carefully tending the current relationship with Washington. At the tactical level too,China is now in a phase of improving ties with the United States after rocking them in 2010.

If Islamabad saw Beijing as a strategic alternative to Washington,China has seized the current crisis in US-Pakistan relations to make itself indispensable to both.

Since the US forces killed Osama bin Laden deep inside Pakistan on May 2,Pakistan has been virtually begging for Chinese support. Meanwhile Washington has pressed Beijing to encourage the Pakistan army to end its support to terror groups destabilising Afghanistan.

This has put China in the enviable position of a diplomatic bridge between the United States and Pakistan. Beijing has relished playing the part.

In public,it came out in strong defence of Pakistan at one of its most vulnerable moments,and warned the rest of the world against the violation of its sovereignty. In private,the Chinese message to Gilani was different. Beijing urged Pakistan to recognise the difficult circumstance it finds itself in,avoid needless confrontation,and look for tactical accommodation by stabilising the relationship with the US and calming the ties with its immediate neighbours.

Pawn sacrifice

Whether it takes China’s sensible advice or not,Pakistan should be able to see a pattern in Beijing’s response to its national security crises.

Despite the deepening strategic partnership with Pakistan over the last six decades,Beijing has never provided decisive support for Islamabad when its needs were the greatest.

In the 1965 and 1971 wars with India,the Chinese communists made a lot of noise including verbal ultimatums to Delhi. But they did not do what India most feared — open a second front to relieve the pressure on the Pakistan army.

During the summer of 1999,China adopted a neutral position when India used military force to vacate Pakistan army’s aggression in the Kargil sector. Beijing also called on Islamabad to respect the Line of Control in Kashmir.

China continues to do a lot of extraordinary things for the Pakistan army — support its nuclear weapon and missile programme,modernise its conventional arsenal,and promote strategic development of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

Delhi,not surprisingly,is riled. But if it looks carefully,Delhi should be able to recognise the limits of the all-weather partnership between Beijing and Rawalpindi.

There is no doubt that China sees Pakistan as a useful instrument in the balance of power game it plays with the United States,the Middle East and India.

But it is also clear that China is not at the beck and call of the Pakistan army. In other words,it is Pakistan that is a pawn for China and not the other way around.

If Beijing’s support to the Pakistan army is driven by a cold calculus and not sentiment,it is reasonable to assume that there are conditions under which China might sacrifice the pawn.

If the Pakistan army can’t control the jihadi groups on its soil and is unable to help China achieve its regional objectives,it would not be surprising if Beijing begins to redo its sums. It is a good moment then for India to initiate a comprehensive dialogue with China on the future of Pakistan.

The writer is a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research,Delhi