On Monday, February 18, Pakistan goes to polls. The mood, as seen in its English media, is summarised in Zahid Hussain’s cover story in the February issue of Newsline: “Never before in Pakistan’s history has an election campaign been so dull and lacklustre. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto casts a shadow of gloom, but it is also something to do with a lack of trust in the whole process.” He argues that the period immediately after the elections will see increased instability in Pakistan, a view that is shared by most analysts. The PPP, he says, will benefit from a post-Bhutto sympathy wave and do well in Punjab. Nawaz Sharif’s PML will do well too, with many politicians in the king’s party, the PML-Q, rushing to return to their original party. In Sindh, PPP is expected to dominate in rural areas, with the MQM holding urban areas. The PPP is also set to benefit from the MMA’s disintegration in the NWFP.

The PPP is expected to be the single largest party in the next National Assembly. “(President Pervez) Musharraf’s greatest fear,” writes Hussain, “is that the PPP and the PML-N will join hands, which would certainly mean an end to his presidency.” Musharraf is believed to be in touch with the PPP, and his team is also said to have tried to strike a deal with the PML-N, though success is unlikely.

Switching partners

In The Friday Times, Najam Sethi considers the scenario if PPP does not win a majority on its own. Would it partner the PML-N or PML-Q? “It is doubtful if Sharif will come on board as long as President Musharraf is still on the Hill and the pre-PCO judges aren’t restored. If (Asif) Zardari is unable or unwilling to oblige Sharif on these two counts — in fact if the judges were restored they would quickly band together to throw President Musharraf out on one pretext or another — then he will have to make a coalition with the PML-Q. But he can extract a heavy price for sharing power with President Musharraf. If the president is inclined to hog the show or throw his weight about, Zardari could always exercise the option of joining with Sharif and stripping President Musharraf of his powers to appoint the army chief and dismiss governments and parliament or, if worse comes to worst, throwing him out.”

... contd.