The other effect of sanctions has been that American firms have mostly been replaced by Chinese companies. And while it is perfectly fair to blame Beijing for supporting a dictatorial regime, the Indians, the Thais, the Malaysians and others have also been happy to step into the vacuum in Burma. Is this a net gain for America, for Burma and for human rights?

Thant, who has a celebrated pedigree in Burma — he is the only grandson of U Thant, the third secretary-general of the United Nations — hopes for sustained diplomatic pressure to get the regime to begin a process of real reform, involving the United States, China and India. He says, “America can still play a crucial role. What the Burmese really want — if they had a choice — is not to be another province of China. But my fear is that the West, momentarily aroused, will reflexively impose new sanctions and then move on. The result will be that the West’s role in Burma will decline even more, China’s will rise, and Burma will be further away from a liberal democratic future.”