Let’s take Kashmir first, not only because it is the latest in a series of fascinating election campaigns and results this year. All the “experts” you heard before the elections said the following:

1. Mufti Mohammed Sayeed’s PDP was going to sweep the Valley for many reasons. Firstly, it had roused popular sentiment on the Amarnath issue to such an extent that so many well-meaning intellectuals were moved into suggesting that we give away Kashmir, or at least let the Kashmiris go where they want. Secondly, that with its call for self-rule, it was seen as the party closest to the separatists and since the popular mood, as evidenced in the streets in August, was in their favour, the PDP would have to be a clear winner. Third, and this was the most interesting of all, the fact that militants allowed the election to go on showed that they had decided (or conspired with the voters) to ensure that the political force closest to them wins. You heard several of the tele-pundits say this with so much clarity even on the morning that counting began that you wondered if they were the ones carrying that message from the separatists to the voters.

2. The BJP was going to sweep Jammu and other “Hindu-dominated” areas because of the brilliant manner in which they had exploited the same Amarnath issue. Particularly so since its only rival is the Congress, which the Muslims hated because of its “Indian nationalist” credentials, and Hindus because its chief minister withdrew the Amarnath land allotment. This election, therefore, was to mark the arrival of the BJP, as also of total communal polarisation in the state.

... contd.