3. The party that was going to “pay” for its sins and stupidity was the National Conference. A whole legion of “experts” said Omar Abdullah had thrown away any chance his party may have had by making that “I am a Muslim and I am an Indian and I see no distinction between the two” speech in the Lok Sabha debate on the nuclear deal. With such “immaturity” he did not have a hope in the Valley.

The voter, meanwhile, has turned this entire logic, drawn from conventional political analysis, on its head. The Valley had high voting, but either the separatists did not send out a message to bring in the PDP, or the voters did not listen to them. Omar’s “I am an Indian” speech does not seem to have done him any harm. And, finally, the communal polarisation that Amarnath had “promised” us did not happen, either in the Valley or in Jammu. The Congress very nearly maintained its earlier numbers, and while the BJP gained, it was mostly at the cost of “others” whose numbers nearly halved (from 22 to 10), confirming yet another evolving, and positive, national trend.

It would be audacious to suggest that an election result in Kashmir should confirm some new trends in national politics. But occasionally you can stick your neck out. To begin with, people are no longer willing to vote merely on past prejudices, fears, grievances and anger. Second, the days of blind, bloc voting are over. Third, and most important, voting behaviour is now driven by a new yearning for better governance. What we saw begin as a quest for bijli, sadak and paani (power, roads, water) and then added padhai (education) and naukri (jobs) to that list, is now becoming a better defined need for better governments overall. This is the most important change because, interestingly, it emanates from two decades of strong anti-incumbency and is now a new wave that does not mind re-electing the incumbent if it looks like he ran a half-decent government.

... contd.