There is a lot of justifiable speculation in India about relations with Pakistan after Musharraf’s departure. One widespread view is that the assertion of democracy in Pakistan signified by Musharraf’s resignation is a positive factor and will lead to effective civilian control of foreign affairs and defence. Both Zardari and Nawaz Sharif have expressed themselves in favour of a closer relationship with India. A minority view is that Musharraf’s departure may result in a setback to Indo-Pakistan relations since civilian governments have always followed the line laid down by the army and the ISI. In the past, Nawaz Sharif’s attempt to break free of it with the Lahore declaration was the beginning of the alienation of the army that finally led to his toppling.

The Pakistan army obviously decided to sacrifice Musharraf and ensure its corporate interests will be preserved. The disclosure of conversations between Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto in Ron Suskind’s recently released book The Way of the World shows that the US intelligence establishment made those transcripts available to the author, indicating it had no more interest in Musharraf either.

It is expected that the governing coalition will break up in the next few months, requiring fresh elections. That raises the question whether that election will be as fair and free as the one held in February, 2008. In many other elections the ISI has played a major role in shaping results. Therefore, in all likelihood, the Pakistan army and the ISI will have a chance to influence which party will form the next government in Pakistan. It is said that General Kiyani is a professional soldier who has demonstrated, through his neutrality, his professionalism. But he was the head of the ISI for three years, and is the first ISI director-general to head the army. There is no evidence that during that time it altered its basic ethos, goals or operational procedures. Kiyani is an enigma and his political values are crucial. He also served under Benazir and was associated with secret Musharraf-Benazir negotiations. Will that make him pro-PPP in the next elections?

... contd.