It is difficult to say.

His position is not unlike the one held by General Aslam Beg in 1988, except that he will be wielding greater power since he is not likely to deal with a strong president like Ghulam Ishaq Khan. Both leading political parties in Pakistan are agreed on nominating a president with no political weight for the coming presidential elections.

After Nawaz Sharif’s experience no political leader in Pakistan is going to take on the army. Thus India, the United States, Afghanistan and the rest of the world must assess Kiyani. The difficulty is that while he is the crucial decision-maker in Pakistan, the Indian leadership and diplomats will be dealing with their counterparts who will only reflect his policies. They might all claim to be in charge — Benazir did during her time in office and revealed the truth subsequently. The government’s recent retreat over control of the ISI revealed the real source of power in Pakistani polity. The popular perception in Pakistan that government policy is shaped under US influence is not unjustified since the US is the only country in regular interaction with core Pakistani decision-makers. It looks as though the US military and intelligence establishments and General Kiyani and the ISI have reached a modus vivendi, resulting in Musharraf’s exit. While US intelligence and military officials at high levels talk of closer cooperation with India, that will always be circumscribed by the limits Pakistan imposes on US officials. In retrospect, one can see that the modest progress made in the peace process was under Musharraf’s leadership. It is a matter for speculation whether that will be continued by Kiyani. The Kabul embassy attack, serial blasts in Indian cities and ceasefire violations do not constitute happy auguries.

... contd.