When, last Thursday, Pakistan’s ruling coalition finally agreed to impeach the president, it suddenly became much more possible that the fourth army general who clung to power in the country might probably have to leave, despite his stated intention to fight back. The pertinent questions today are: will the coalition manage to fulfil its promise to the electorate, and how will the general leave — gracefully or after some embarrassment?

Like Musharraf’s predecessors, it is almost unbelievable that the former army chief will leave without resistance. General Ayub did not leave until he was forced to do so by his successor, General Yahya Khan, who in turn left under pressure from the senior officers of the army. Similarly, General Zia-ul-Haq wouldn’t leave until he died in a plane crash, which many still believe involved some members of the armed forces. Musharraf is most likely to leave if the present army chief puts his weight behind the ruling coalition.

The present move of the government might have appeared unlikely a month ago. There were a lot of sceptics who argued that the Pakistan People’s Party leadership did not intend to sack the president due to pressure from the United States or some hidden agreement related to the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) which was instrumental in Benazir Bhutto’s return to Pakistan. However, holding on to Musharraf caused a downturn in the PPP’s popularity: it seem to have plummeted within months after the February elections. More recently, the regime was embarrassed after it was forced to withdraw its risky decision to harness the ISI. It is likely that the ISI-related faux pas made the PPP leadership realise that it had to deal with the issue of removing the president as early as possible, so as to remove one of the obstacles to gaining the sort of power needed to control the intelligence agency and the military at large. Not to mention the pressure from its coalition partner, the PML-N, which insisted on restoring the judiciary and removing Musharraf.

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