Accurate satellite maps of Saltoro Ridge are available.

If Islamabad decides to launch an adventure across the AGPL, the costs will be heavy, in fact, much more than Kargil. The terrain is such that it is easier for Pakistan Army to move up to Saltoro Ridge and occupy areas in Siachen. But the 70-m glacier will make it almost impossible for Indian Army to retake Saltoro Ridge.

Pakistani military leaders know it well and so want to provide the minimum commitment for future restraint.

One of the outcomes of the Kargil war has been to bring in an internationally respected sanctity to the LoC. Even if Pakistan is ready to authenticate the AGPL and make it public, the problem is that this is only an agreed line, indicating the position of troops at a certain time. What if Pakistani Army occupies the vacated posts and areas from which Indian Army would have withdrawn as part of the bilateral agreement?

Throwing out Pakistani Army will require Herculean efforts and incur very high casualty. Opening another front will amount to escalation and even a charge that we are violating the sanctity of the 1972 Line of Control and the international border.

We also need assurance that we can deter violation and take punitive action without incurring unacceptable costs and complications if that deterrence fails.

This will be best carried out through regular aerial surveillance. Force will be used against would-be intruders east of Saltoro Ridge.

Pakistan may not be willing to include such a clause in the agreement, but we should make it clear that we have the right and we would exercise it.

... contd.