There is strong evidence of the erosion of Muslim vote for the SP by about 7 percentage points, from 54 per cent last time to 47 this time. The two regions of Poorvanchal — East and North East in our definition — that went to polls in the last two phases did witness some polarisation with about 62 per cent Muslims backing the SP. In the rest of the state the figure was merely 38 per cent. The SP lost about two percentage point votes and 7 seats in the constituencies with high concentration of Muslim population. This election shows that Mulayam’s Muslim vote is not all that strong, especially if the Muslim voters do not fear the return of the BJP.

We must therefore consider an alternative explanation. SP’s ‘retaining’ the same share of votes as last time was a statistical coincidence, a net canceling of two effects that worked in opposite directions. On the one hand, many of the SP’s micro-strategies of expanding its base — courting of upper castes, including rajputs and kurmis — did pay off. The SP’s pre-poll smugness had some basis in reality. Also, many of the populist sops yielded some dividends: 15 per cent voters reported that someone from their family benefited from the unemployment allowance, 12 per cent reported benefiting from Kanya Vidya Dhan. Mulayam did have an image of being strong on development, and not just among his supporters. But these gains were smaller than expected and were wiped out by his losses among the Muslims and the political polarisation that resulted from the severe indictment on law and order and corruption in the SP regime.

... contd.