There’s likely to be a shift in the rainfall pattern this monsoon season with concentration on the western coast.
The south-west monsoon season usually begins from June and forecasts by global agencies show that in the first half of the season, heavy rains would occur on the west coast, parts of south India, western Uttar Pradesh and northeastern Madhya Pradesh. In the last two months, the southern peninsula, western and central India would receive heavy rains.
The US-based International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), while making the forecast, did not specifically identify the regions of drought or deficient rainfall in India.
Temperatures would remain high in several parts of the country. The shift in the rainfall pattern is a matter of concern. Since the last two years, there has been heavy rainfall in drought-prone areas while the flood-prone areas were left dry. Meteorologists are studying this shift in the rainfall pattern and are trying to correlate with climate change.
The good news is that the spoilsport El Nino — it’s the warming of Pacific waters above normal range and leads to drought in different parts of the world — has subsided and would remain ‘‘neutral’’.’
El Nino’s opposite La Nina (cooling of Pacific waters above the normal range) causes heavy rainfall at places. Global forecasts suggest while EL Nino will remain subdued in all four regions of the Pacific (Nino 1+2, 3, 3.4 and 4), there may be a possible emergence of a weak La Nina. The forecasts, however, are not sure when the La Nina phenomena would emerge and to what extent it can impact.
... contd.
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