The IRI, while making its projection for El Nino, has taken into consideration the forecasts made by 14 dynamical and 9 statistical models. Monsoon rainfall forecast depends upon several factors like land and ocean temperature, snow cover, wind pressure gradient.
The IRI has considered some relevant factors and said “temperature anomalies in the Indian Ocean would very slowly weaken” in the monsoon period. Temperature in the tropical Atlantic, north of the equator, would also weaken mildly below normal in the south of the equator in the eastern region.
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