Ahmedabad city, with its 12 constituencies, goes to polls in the second phase on December 16 and candidates in at least six seats can never be sure of their chances till the votes are cast. The reason: a change in demographic patterns, thanks to migration of both the Hindu and Muslim communities.

On one hand, the migration won’t make much of an impact in single community-dominated constituencies like Sarkhej, where Muslims are in a majority. Here, areas like Juhapura, where most Muslims migrated after the riots, make up for the Hindu-dominated areas like Naranpura, Satellite and Bopal. Of the 10 lakh voters in Sarkhej, there are around 2.50 lakh Muslim voters.

Similarly, in constituencies like Sabarmati and Ellisbridge, there are no Muslim votes worth counting and therefore, these areas will throw up predictable results. If Hindus moved in after the riots, they only added to the community’s strength.

On the other hand, the areas that people left behind will be affected since the shift has changed the population balance drastically. These constituencies are: Dariapur-Kazipur, Kalupur, Khadia, Shahpur, Jamalpur and Sheher Kotda.

In these constituencies, the winners have scraped through by wafer-thin margins and any change in demographics will affect their chances-depending on which community has moved out.

For instance, in Shahpur, the Congress sees its chance after several Hindus moved out after the riots. According to senior party leader J.V. Momin, this may help the Congress improve its tally from the existing two seats to three in Ahmedabad.

City mayor and former city unit BJP president Amit Shah said matter-of-factly, “The effect of migration depends on which community has moved out and from where. If they are Hindus, then the Congress will benefit and if they are Muslims, then the BJP will gain.” He admitted that if Hindus migrated from Shahpur, Revenue Minister Kaushik Patel could be in trouble.

People have also been moving out for reasons other than the riots. For instance, people from the old city areas have moved to newer areas like Satellite Road, Jodhpur, S.G. highway, Vejalpur and Juhapura to avoid congestion in old city areas. Also, property tax in these areas is quite low compared to that in the Walled City area. Property tax will be increased in new areas too, but only in increments over the next four years.

Political parties will also be affected in residential areas like Shahpur, Kalupur and Khadia constituencies, which have been converted into commercial zones.

Voters in Dariapur-Kazipur, Shaherkotda and Jamalpur have shifted. In these areas, commercial establishments —electronics, printing press, paper, automobiles—are running out of houses.