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This is an archive article published on October 23, 2009
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Opinion Six months in Haryana

In May,the Congress swept. How October’s result changes its politics....

October 23, 2009 02:52 AM IST First published on: Oct 23, 2009 at 02:52 AM IST

Even as it appeared that,with the truncated strength of the Congress in the new Haryana Assembly,the dissidents and party rebels would mount pressure on the party high command for a change of guard,came the news that their chief protagonist,Birender Singh,had suffered an unexpected defeat at the hands of the INLD supremo Om Parkash Chautala.

 For Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda,who is likely to retain the office,the news about the narrow defeat of Birender Singh must have been the sole bit of relief. While no one,including Hooda,was expecting a re-run of the party’s performance in the previous Assembly elections or the recent Lok Sabha elections,the projections were for a comfortable victory. It was also expected that the narrower the victory margin for the Congress,the greater was the possibility of the challengers mounting pressure on the high command. Seats projected for the Congress post-election announcement fell,an indication that the INLD would gain,given the crowds Chautala was attracting at election rallies; but hardly anyone had expected him to do as well as he did.

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Given the proximity of Hooda to the Gandhis and how well the state Congress did in the Lok Sabha elections,he is probably still going to be anointed the Congress Legislature Party leader and hence chief minister. But though he may form the government easily,running it will be tougher.

Although his chief detractor Birender Singh is out of the race,and will most likely to be rehabilitated in the party’s organisational structure at the centre,Hooda will have to remain on his toes with Chautala keeping up the pressure one the one hand and,on the other,middle-rung party leaders who are ambitious and do not see eye-to-eye with Hooda. These include union minister Shelja,who has the twin advantages of being a scheduled caste leader and a woman. Some of her favourites were denied tickets,for which she blames Hooda.

Another vocal leader is state tourism and forest minister Kiran Choudary,daughter-in-law of former chief minister Bansi Lal. The young transport minister,  Randeep Singh Surjewala,is another to be watched; while Rao Inderjit Singh,son of former union minister Rao Birender Singh,is also nursing a grudge.

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Some of them opposed Hooda’s recommendation that the elections be pre-poned and they might now justify their stand in view of the party’s decline in seats. They have been also watching closely the rise of Hooda’s son,Deepinder Hooda,who was recently re-elected from the Rohtak Lok Sabha constituency. They could suspect that Hooda is projecting his son while ignoring them. While none of them could do much with the overwhelming majority that the Congress enjoyed in the outgoing House,they may keep Hooda on his toes with its reduced strength. However,none of these leaders have a pan-Haryana appeal or support. In fact all of them remained confined to their constituencies during the campaign; Hooda alone has travelled all across the state. Thus Congress is not left with any credible alternative,at least in the near future.

The man to be watched is Chautala,a past master in politics,with a chequered political history. He has been a five-time chief minister,including a stint of a few days. He had also engineered the toppling of the Bansi Lal government in 1999 and is known for his political astuteness.

The election results have made it amply clear that he and his party retain the support of the Jats,who dominate nearly 35 constituencies. He travelled extensively and had attracted good crowds all across the state. Some of the critical decisions taken by his government,like the payment of pensions at doorstep and schemes for women,were wildly popular. And the major factor that had gone against his government,that of the poor law and order situation,appears to have become victim of short public memory.

Chautala spoke only of local issues: that’s what made a difference between the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections from the state and the Assembly elections. A major factor in the Lok Sabha elections was Manmohan Singh versus L.K. Advani versus Mayawati as prime ministerial candidates. Chautala was personally irrelevant. That partially explains the washout his party received then. Of course the performance of the state government under Hooda did count in the ultimate landslide victory for the Congress in the state but the issues this time around were quite different and local.

There is,however,no doubt that Hooda has the backing of the party high command and the UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi had also reposed her faith in him while addressing election campaign rallies. Hooda shall,however,have to use all his political skills in the coming months. Chautala,at least,is not likely to let him rest on his oars.

vipin.pubby@expressindia.com

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