Prakash and Munawwar Hasan are all set to dissent. There is an SP Parliamentary party meeting tomorrow where the leadership is expected to make another attempt to keep its flock together.

As it is, the fate of this government hinges on 13 MPs — two each from the JD(S), the NC, one each from TMC, NPF, AIMIM, DMK (Dayanidhi Maran), PMK’s E Ponnuswamy (who is said to have a different view from that of his party), and three Independents, including S K Bwiswmuthiary (Assam), Mani Charenamei (Manipur) and Thupstan Chhewang (J&K).

If all of them abstain, the House strength comes down to 529, which means the magic number is 265. Still, the UPA falls one MP short. UPA’s best-case will be to get the NC, the JD(S), Maran and a few others from the camp of potential abstainees on board to take the tally beyond 272.

And if these parties don’t agree, the lone Nagaland People’s Front MP W W Konyak may play a crucial role. Pawar, who has good ties with NPF leader and Nagaland CM Neiphieu Rio, met Konyak today. “He (Pawar) requested me to vote for the UPA. I requested him to speak to the Nagaland CM. I presume they have spoken. But I am yet to receive any directions,” said Konyak, who has also received calls from the BJP.

The hurdle here may be a simple fact that the Manmohan Singh government had dismissed the Rio government earlier this year.

... contd.