The military operation against the Lal Masjid extremists is over. But most Pakistanis are worried about its fallout. Indeed, a post-mortem reveals disturbing fissures in Pakistani state and society with far-reaching consequences.

One, there is a split among those Pakistanis who say “they had it coming”, that the writ of the state must be enforced at all costs, that religious extremism is a curse, and those who nevertheless insist that the “militants should have been given safe passage in order to save the lives of women and children”. Naturally, the latter include mullahs and conservatives of all shades. But anti-Musharraf politicians are also trying to exploit the situation. The only divergent voice is that of Benazir Bhutto. She agrees that the “operation” was necessary but has cunningly qualified it by adding that religious extremism is a consequence of army rule and only civilian supremacy in a democracy can counter it effectively.

Two, the mainstream vernacular media, print and electronic, has been more swayed by the Islamists than the government. This is because the sentiments of most middle-class reporters, news editors and television anchors are typically anti-army, anti-Musharraf, anti-West, and anti-America. The objective effect of this is the consolidation of emotional positions in the media by default. Since pro-establishment, commercial-minded owners are unable or unwilling to educate their staffers in the larger, long-term, rational “national interest”, this independent media-bias could become a destabilising factor in the national polity.

Three, the Musharraf-military-PML alliance is a net loser in this situation. Many Pakistanis accuse it of scripting the prolonged drama to divert attention from the multiple crises facing it and then losing control of the play when the actors rebelled, compelling it to hastily draw the curtain. Others believe it arrogantly backtracked on a last-ditch solution stitched by PML stalwarts Chaudhry Shujaat/Ijaz ul Haq and Maulana Rashid Ghazi. The net result is mullah outrage and conservative alienation across the country. If this protest becomes widespread and turns violent, the government might be compelled to clamp martial law. At any rate, with “lib-labs”, NGOs and civil-society types opposed to military rule, and others rooting for the PPP, the fortunes of the ruling Muslim League are likely to dim in the run-up to general elections, thereby significantly thwarting General Musharraf’s political ambitions.

... contd.