The monsoon and the Karnataka assembly election results will hit us about the same time. Perhaps they will determine the timetable for the Lok Sabha polls. Karnataka has recently seen all kinds of alliances and splits, agreements and betrayals. The election outcome there will yet again reveal the strength or fickleness of the so-called ideological positions of the parties and their leaders. If no party gets a simple majority, we may see another round of horse-trading and unstable governments.

In that sense at least, Karnataka will set the ball rolling. Now most parties think in terms of post-result alliances, not pre-election fronts. This “pragmatic” approach towards forming governments began in 1998, when the BJP could mobilise the support of 18 parties to come to power. In 1999, the BJP had roped in 24 parties. The flexibility displayed by the AIADMK and the DMK in supporting and opposing the BJP-led front finally established that ideology is passé.

Both the Dravidian parties were opposed to the BJP in the past. The BJP (and earlier the Jan Sangh) was seen by the Dravidian politicians as a manifestation of “Aryan” politics of the Hindi belt. The imposition of Hindi as a national language was resented and Hindi DD news broadcasts virtually banned. In the early ’60s, there were anti-Hindi riots.

All that was forgotten by both parties. Jayalalithaa’s party joined the government in 1998 and, in 1999, when she withdrew support, Karunanidhi’s party extended a helping hand. Indeed, the BJP-led NDA could not have survived up to 2004 without the off and on support of former “secularists” like George Fernandes, Ram Vilas Paswan, Farooq Abdullah, Chandrababu Naidu and Mamata Banerjee. Despite the ideological differences, they had one thing in common: anti-Congressism.

... contd.