Pollsters were banished by the EC’s diktat but there were still the theorists. The results of Assembly elections 2008 pose a serious setback to this breed as well — underlining the fact that the voter is always steps ahead of the pundit.

Thesis: The wave of terror strikes and the Mumbai attack would become the meta-narrative of these elections. The BJP tried to stoke and mobilize anxieties around this issue in its campaigns. L K Advani and Narendra Modi addressed several rallies, especially in Delhi and Madhya Pradesh, which had terror as their main theme. The spurt in turnout in Delhi on November 29, three days after the Mumbai attack — Rajasthan went to polls five days later — and especially in the capital’s urban constituencies, was cited as evidence of the anxiety that had gripped the voter.

Reality check: Terror — or how safe we are — is certainly an issue and given the attacks in Delhi, Jaipur and then Mumbai, the Congress-led UPA was on the defensive. But the BJP’s formulation of the issue failed to strike a credible chord.

Its campaign that the UPA was “soft on terror” didn’t translate into “we know how to keep you safe.” Its “blood-stain” ad asking for votes even as the siege was on in Mumbai put off many voters.

Thesis: The economic crisis and inflation would be an overarching issue.

Reality check: Rise in prices of essential commodities did not stop incumbents in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Delhi from coming back to power, when the electorate thought their governments had performed.

... contd.