By all accounts, the defeat of incumbents in Rajasthan and Mizoram cannot be attributed to the economic crisis and was due to factors that lay closer home.
In Rajasthan, for instance, it is safe to say that Vasundhara Raje was more hobbled by serious infighting in her own party than by consequences of the meltdown.
Sure, EMI pain and inflation are issues for voters but they weren’t convinced that a change in government would fix these problems.
Thesis: BSP’s Mayawati and her “rainbow” coalition would set the stage for a third force.
Reality check: The BSP gained but is far short of Mayawati’s ambition. It polled over 10% of the vote in 51 seats in MP, 38 each in Delhi and Rajasthan and at least 11 in Chhattisgarh. Such incremental progress may being some cheer to Mayawati but she is far from being a new pole in national politics.
The BSP did not cost the Congress its chance to form governments in the still essentially bi-polar contests in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Nor does the Congress miss the BSP’s numbers in forming governments in Delhi, where it has a got majority of its own, or in Rajasthan where it can easily make up the short distance to the magic figure by choosing from a large array of Independents.
Thesis: Party that has a CM, has the vote
Reality check: Mixed. In Rajasthan, the BJP went to polls with a Chief Minister and lost. The Congress won in the state and it still hasn’t declared a chief minister. But then Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh were both effective CMs as was Sheila Dikshit in Delhi. And all three staved off anti-incumbency.
... contd.
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