There has never been a dearth of issues, least of all on the question of ruling Pakistan. Internal and external problems abound today, dwarfing the issue of the restoration of the judges sent packing by Musharraf as he declared emergency on November 3 last year; the question of the president’s impeachment too is less of a real issue for a people facing economic hardship, uncertainty and terrorism — not necessarily in that order. But these two questions alone seem to occupy the leaders’ minds.

Relations with India and Afghanistan are arguably at the lowest ebb in many years; those with Washington are at their ambivalent best. Terrorist attacks in the north-west and nationalist insurgency in Balochistan are crying out for attention, while street crime, the monsoon and the steep food prices flood the land. The people are literally marooned. There is, in effect, little governance or even emergency provision of relief and fire-fighting that are so badly needed.

To many, these are tell-tale signs of more troubled times ahead; the makings of yet another dismissal of an elected government by an all-powerful president, unless, of course, Musharraf is totally out of luck. The ruling coalition partners, with the exception of the MQM, after much bickering over the preceding weeks have agreed to ask Musharraf to seek a vote of confidence from parliament. The Sharif League can interpret this as the start of impeachment proceedings against the former general who had sent its government packing in 1999 and exiled its leaders, while the PPP could live with the comfort that it did not actually start any such proceedings.

Many believe that the US-brokered deal reached between Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto before the latter’s return to Pakistan in April last year was clinched after the PPP had agreed not to proceed against the general if he absolved the party leadership of corruption and criminal charges that were levelled against them. For his part, Musharraf fulfilled the promise by promulgating the PPP-specific National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) before the February election and also secured for it the Supreme Court’s approval after sacking the errant judges. The legality of the NRO and Musharraf’s presidency are bound together as indemnified by the post-November 3 Supreme Court, while the previous apex court presided over by Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry had called the NRO to book, a move that Zardari cannot find in his heart to forgive.

As for the president seeking a vote of confidence from parliament, there is no provision in the constitution, after all, requiring him to do so. This indeed will become the moot point in legal circles and the debate can drag on, with the result that the reinstatement of the judges, to which the ruling coalition has once again committed itself as the next move after Musharraf’s “impeachment”, will remain a pipedream. This is the likely outcome of the whole drama if Zardari chooses to act decently. If, on the other hand, he has been convinced by Sharif to punish Musharraf, then that is a different and dangerous game altogether. Musharraf is known to act rashly whenever he felt he was being “pushed against the wall” — his own words. The next question is: who and what will decide the final outcome, the drop scene? The answer is predictable: the new general in his untainted, brand new chief-of-the-army-staff khakis and a long-distance phone call between the GHQ and the White House. This is unless of course the reborn ISI, now supposedly operating under the interior ministry, and the CIA have pre-arranged alternative plans to put in action when the time comes.

The third option is somewhat as follows, as once eloquently described by poet Faiz Ahmed Faiz. When Faiz was finally absolved of the charges of plotting to overthrow the government that were brought against him under the Rawalpindi Conspiracy Case in the late ’50s, he was asked by a journalist what he thought of the political situation in the country after his release. “Will it improve or get worse?” the journalist asked, and Faiz prophetically replied, Bhai teesri soorat ye hai ke aise hi chalta rahe. (The third option is that it continues the way it is.) And it has, ever since.

If that turns out to be the case this time round again, the situation that is likely to obtain will be one where everyone will stay where they are, but with a bit more misery than they have at present. The PPP-led coalition will continue in office and so will the bickering among the ruling partners. Musharraf will stay put in the presidency, lying low after swallowing another bitter pill in exchange for not sacking parliament, even as it dared to impeach him. Sharif will continue to find faults with the government but not that of his own party’s in Punjab. The MQM and the ANP will go on sharing power with the PPP in Karachi and the Frontier province, respectively, denouncing extremism but doing nothing to contain it. Maulana Fazlur Rahman will further practise the art of saying nothing while saying it all in a few words.

Where such unmoving prospects will leave the people, the country, democracy and the staggering problems all three face is anyone’s guess. It’ll be argued, yet again and tirelessly, whether democracy suits the “genius of our people”, as Gen Ayub Khan had famously said in the ’60s. Unfortunately, after so many years, the inertia gripping the rulers and their lack of vision invite little else but more introspection and a continuous debate on the future of democracy. 

The writer is an editor with ‘Dawn’, based in Karachi

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